This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

Here's an interesting market: https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a

In the discussion, Gurkenglas said,

> Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right?

> TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes

> TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally

> From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin.

Yet at the same time, a whale keeps buying YES.

This question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Mar 4, 8:31pm: To clarify, TheSkeward is the current administrator.

Mar 4, 8:44pm: Ignore the previous clarification. It was redundant.

Mar 5, 10:34pm: If there's a dispute, we'll use the numbers from the API to settle this question. I will not round numbers. If the question's at 14.9% for 12 hours, that will count too.

By the end of the day (EST) March 10th, will a total of at least M$ 10,000 (as judged by the size of the pool) be invested in this market?

#meta #shortterm #test

This market resolves to 'YES' if 'Dune' wins in 4 or more categories at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022.

Dune was nominated in 10 categories: best picture, best costume design, best sound, best original score, best adapted screenplay, best film editing, best makeup and hairstyling, best cinematography, best production design and best visual effects.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics

Resolution resolves to YES/NO.

Feb 27, 6:46am: I am curious about people's rationale for either Yes or No.

This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.

https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a
This market's close date is subject to change.

Gurkenglas

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

Niclas Kupper

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

tigrennatenn

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

Melanie Heisey

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

Jotto 999

We need numerical range questions.  Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

p_journal

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

John Beshir

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

N.C. Young

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

TANSTAAFL

A "poll" category of market.  You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins.  (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Ben Dunn-Flores

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Patrick Delaney

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

There is no reason the next feature market should wait until the resolution of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be .

I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives.

For example, if someone finds a loophole and stakes M$ 10000 one second before closing time, expecting to siphon this pool into their account for no meaningful contribution, and this is plain as day to all involved, I expect to try to make sure they don't profit.

If someone gives an answer you expect deserves payment, and so you immediately double their stake, allowing them to immediately cash out at a profit, that is a reasonable way to gain the payout they would have. I too may do so, if I make sure to not unduly profit from insider knowledge.

I plan to pay out 3% of profits on this market, that is, 75% of the creator's commission, to the ANTE answer, allowing others to subsidize this market. The remaining percentage point seems a fair commission for my administration.

The rules may change in the face of good arguments, especially when that doesn't discourage early contribution. I won't ignore the incentives of people that have already acted. In fact, good arguments in the form of answers will be rewarded! For this "smart contract" with a human in place of a blockchain also could use feature suggestions. But do mark such answers "Meta: ".

I don't plan to reward previously suggested features unless you weren't paid enough for them. I think you should be paid for your feature requests that have already been implemented before this market's creation, but I will take the opinions of ANTE stakes into account here.

I consent to this market being transferred to another user by Manifold staff if future me behaves in ways that apparent present me grossly disapproves of. If I get tired of this, I may say so and close this after 24 hours. If Manifold doesn't implement partial payouts and history archival in time we may have to close and reopen this.

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/

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